North Dakota is again included in the elevated risk area for energy emergencies this winter, per NERC’s 2024-25 Winter Reliability Assessment issued in November.
While regulatory and industry initiatives have improved winter readiness, many regions of the country are once again at elevated risk of electricity supply shortfalls in the event of extreme weather, the North American Reliability Corporation (NERC) states in its 2024-25 Winter Reliability Assessment released Nov. 14.
Ongoing industry efforts to bolster winter reliability have made the grid better prepared for the coming months, NERC says. But rapid electric demand growth paired with the retirement of more than 4.5 GW of generation over last year is further straining the system.
Meeting the growing energy demand has become “more challenging and complex as coal-fired and older natural gas-fired generators retire and are replaced by variable and energy-limited resources,” NERC says.
Challenges tied to higher demand are compounded by “flawed public policies,” which are shutting down reliable power generation, National Rural Electric Cooperative Association CEO Jim Matheson says.
“This report clearly highlights the need to swiftly implement a pro-energy policy agenda with a focus on affordability and reliability for American families and businesses,” Matheson says. “Smart energy policies that keep the lights on are more important than ever.”
Infrastructure damage from recent hurricanes could also make the grid less resilient to extreme winter storms while recovery efforts continue, the report says.
NERC says all assessed areas should have adequate resources for normal peak winter load. But much of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast – as well as Texas – are at risk of energy shortfalls or natural gas pipeline capacity constraints if there is a prolonged cold snap.
North Dakota is in an elevated risk of electricity supply shortfalls during extreme weather this winter:
• Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), which includes the eastern and northeastern portions of North Dakota: The region’s coal and gas-fired generation has fallen by more than 5 GW since last winter, partially offset by a 2 GW increase in firm capacity imports. MISO’s peak demand forecast is down over 4 GW since last winter, which helps alleviate capacity concerns. However, with fewer internal dispatchable resources, which can be ramped up or down to meet demand in adverse weather conditions, and an increasing reliance on wind and imports, the risk of a winter supply shortfall has increased in the MISO region.
• Southwest Power Pool, which spans most of the state in the east central, central and western regions: Anticipated reserve margins are up, largely due to increased demand-response resources. But forecasted winter peak demand has risen 1.8 GW over last winter, while total generation capacity has dropped by more than 4 GW. The winter performance of wind and solar accounts for 2 GW of reduced generation capacity, while expanded natural gas capacity of 2.6 GW in the SPP system will help this winter.
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Molly Christian, a staff writer for NRECA, contributed reporting to this story.
